Max Noble
The method
One page. How a promise is chosen, how it is judged, how it is scored, and what we do when we get it wrong.
Four tests. All four.
Public
Made in an annual or quarterly report, at a capital markets day, on an earnings call or in a stock exchange announcement.
A number
Growth, margin, savings, capacity, units. Something that can be counted.
A deadline
A year, a quarter or a date. Without one, a promise cannot be broken, so it does not count.
A named person
The chief executive, finance chief or chair who gave it, in that role. The promise follows the person who made it, not the successor who inherits it; the card says so when a successor now answers for it.
We check listed companies on any exchange, not only companies in trouble. Kept promises are recorded with the same care as broken ones.
Five stamps.
Kept
The number was met or beaten by the deadline.
Partly kept
Part of the promise came true, part did not.
Late
It came true, after the deadline.
Broken
The deadline passed and the number did not come true, or the company said it will not.
Quietly dropped
The target was withdrawn or stopped being mentioned before its deadline.
On track
Shown, not scored, until the deadline passes.
How far off a miss was, in three plain words: Near miss, under 10% off the promise. Clear miss, 10 to 30% off. Big miss, more than 30% off, or a promise cut more than once.
Everyone starts at 100.
| Stamp | Near miss | Clear miss | Big miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kept | +5 | ||
| Partly kept | −5 | −10 | −15 |
| Late | −10 | −15 | −20 |
| Broken | −15 | −30 | −50 |
| Quietly dropped | −40 | ||
No floor and no ceiling. A leader enters the ranking only after five settled promises; until then they are listed alphabetically, never by score. A hard year still counts: the company's own reason sits beside every verdict so you can judge it yourself. The score measures one thing, whether the number came true. It is not a verdict on anyone's character or honesty.
Every verdict links to its source.
Each card links to the page where the promise was made and the page where the result was reported, preferably the company's own document or stock exchange announcement, otherwise a named, reputable outlet. Every link was opened before publication; a search result is never a source. The company's reason is printed in its own terms. Nothing is added that the sources do not say.
The company gets the last word on its reason.
Before a harsh verdict on a Danish company, the company is offered the chance to reply. Any reply we receive, from any company, is added to its card with the date it arrived. Write to us through the press page.
When we are wrong, it says so here.
A wrong number, date or stamp is corrected on the card the day we learn of it, and logged below with the date and what changed. Nothing is corrected silently.
- No corrections yet. The first one will be listed here, with its date, the moment it is made.