The Morning Brief · 30 October 2026
Thames Water
On Friday 30 October, at three minutes past nine in the morning, Thames Water told the market that its lenders had said yes once again. Three hours later it published a list of the strangest things found in its sewers this year. The list included crabs, snakes and a large fridge. So who now holds the hand at London’s water company?
The water behind London’s taps.
Thames Water supplies water and takes away sewage for about 16 million people in London and the Thames Valley. It is Britain’s largest water company. Nobody in its area can choose another tap.
New money in. Debt down. A decade to fix it.
Owners, managers and now lenders have all promised to put Thames right. The promises have changed hands more than once.
- Shareholders agreed in July 2023 to put in £750 million of new moneyShareholders, July 2023First £500m withdrawn
- Lenders would keep the emergency money coming while a rescue is builtSenior lenders, since 202516 requests, 16 yeses
- At least £10 billion of new private money, and no dividends for ten yearsLondon & Valley Water, the lender group, 2026Needs Ofwat, a court and No. 10
- Open
Thames Water today is a very different business from what it was two years ago.
Chris Weston, CEO, annual results, 15 July 2026
One minute read. Four to go.
The Power Test · Question 12 of 35
Would your company need its owners to add more money within the next two years?
This question is about your company, not Thames Water.
Your answer stays on this screen. The advice opens free when you join the Morning Brief.
- In your company
- The sign: the debt is carried by hope. The check: name who would put more money into your company if it needed it tomorrow. The move: if nobody comes to mind, bring the debt down while the owners are still at the table.
- In your investments
- The sign: a promise of new money that is withdrawn, which is news. The check: read whether the owners have kept their promises to add money. The move: count how often the company has asked lenders for emergency funding.
- In your career
- The sign: a safe-looking employer can still run out of owners. The check: watch whether the people at the top are putting money in or taking it out. The move: trust that more than the slogans.
— Max Noble
Take the short test, 2 minutes →The full chapter is in the book →
What the room knows about Thames Water
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- Three moves I would make in the chair
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A profit at last. More debt too.
In March 2024 the owners said the first £500 million they had promised would not come.
From then on, the money to keep the taps running had to come from lenders.
In the year to March 2025 Thames lost more than one and a half billion pounds before tax.
In the year to March 2026 it turned that into a profit of more than £200 million.
Its total debt still rose, to almost £20 billion.
A profit that small on a debt that large is like bailing out a lake with a teacup.
Pollution is still a sore point. LBC reported that pollution incidents in London’s waters rose to about 55 a month this year, from 38 last year.
Thames says the rise comes from a new way of counting set by the Environment Agency.
Profit or loss before tax, year to March, £ million
The lenders said yes. S&P marked it near the bottom of its scale.
In March 2025 a court upheld a plan that let Thames borrow up to £3 billion in emergency loans.
By mid-October 2026 it had drawn more than two and a half billion of it.
That loan is not cheap. The lenders charge 9.75% a year on it, the Guardian reported.
On 15 October it asked its lenders for consent for the sixteenth time. The main ask was leave to draw the next £350 million in November.
It also asked to raise the emergency loan by £2.4 billion, which it says would keep it going into autumn 2027.
Without more money, the company says, the current loan lasts until the end of 2026 or the start of 2027.
On 30 October Thames announced that the sixteenth request had been approved. The first fifteen were approved too. By now the lenders could find the meeting room in the dark.
When the owners stop paying in, the lenders start deciding.
Three days earlier, on 27 October, the rating agency S&P had cut Thames Water to CCC-, with a negative outlook, Reuters reported.
In plain words: S&P grades how likely a borrower is to pay its debts in full and on time. CCC- is one of the lowest grades it gives to a company still paying.
A negative outlook means S&P’s next move is more likely down than up.
S&P said that piling on more emergency debt, or pushing out repayment dates without paying lenders fairly for it, could count as a default.
The lenders, who hold about £17 billion of the debt, propose to take the company over with at least £10 billion of new money.
Their plan needs Ofwat’s support and a court’s approval.
In September a committee of MPs urged the government to reject it and take Thames back into public control.
Meanwhile the real decision has moved to Downing Street. Prime Minister Andy Burnham is weighing a lender takeover, some form of state control, or nationalisation, the Guardian reported.
One idea on his desk, according to a source quoted by the Guardian, is to turn about £100 million of unpaid fines into a government stake.
Some MPs want special administration, a court-appointed manager running the company for the state for a while. Nothing has been filed. If the rescue failed, the government or Ofwat could ask a court for it.
On 16 October Thames said that neither its board nor Ofwat had decided to accept the lenders’ plan.
From owners to lenders to No. 10
The pipes work. The money does not, yet.
My call: Thames Water is no longer a question for its managers. Its operations are improving, but its future rests on two hands, the lenders who keep saying yes and the Prime Minister who has not yet chosen a road. Whoever reads those two hands first reads Thames.
Three moves I would make in the chair.
Take the plan to No. 10, not only to Ofwat.
The regulator sets the bills, but the Prime Minister now holds the deciding card. I would build the rescue around what he has said he wants.
Offer the state a seat at the table.
If turning fines into a government stake helps him say yes, I would put it on the table myself, before someone else proposes something worse.
Pay for every extension in the open.
S&P has said that stretching debt without fair terms could count as a default. I would make every new loan and every new date look fair to the lenders and to the public.
Keep Owners Willing to Write the Next Cheque
In March 2024, Thames Water’s owners were due to put in £500 million. Then they said the money would not come. Thames’s debt had grown from about £10 billion in 2017 to about £15 billion by 2024. From then on, the money had to come from lenders. In March 2025 a court upheld a plan for emergency loans of up to £3 billion. By October 2026 Thames had drawn £2.65 billion. It asked for £2.4 billion more. Its lenders had now been asked to say yes sixteen times. The meeting room has become a second home. Debt works only while someone stands behind it. When the owners step back, the lenders step in. Keep owners willing to write the next cheque.
— Max Noble
Thames Water’s owners held back their money in 2024. Since then, its lenders have kept the water flowing.
From the book in preparationThe 52 Laws of Business Power · the 2027 edition, out 31 OctoberRead every law so far →
The Power Test · Question 12 of 35
Would your company need its owners to add more money within the next two years?
This question is about your company, not Thames Water.
- In your company
- The sign: the debt is carried by hope. The check: name who would put more money into your company if it needed it tomorrow. The move: if nobody comes to mind, bring the debt down while the owners are still at the table.
- In your investments
- The sign: a promise of new money that is withdrawn, which is news. The check: read whether the owners have kept their promises to add money. The move: count how often the company has asked lenders for emergency funding.
- In your career
- The sign: a safe-looking employer can still run out of owners. The check: watch whether the people at the top are putting money in or taking it out. The move: trust that more than the slogans.
— Max Noble
Take the short test, 2 minutes →The full chapter is in the book →
Thames Water’s lenders said yes for the sixteenth time on Friday, but the real decision on its future now sits in Downing Street.
You have read Thames Water. Now make the board’s call.
Compete in The Power GameEvery number traceable.
- Thames Water, 30 Oct 2026: results of the sixteenth consent requests, approved · thameswater.co.uk
- Thames Water, 30 Oct 2026: the strangest things found in its sewers this year · thameswater.co.uk
- Thames Water, 15 Oct 2026: sixteenth consent requests launched; £2.65bn drawn of £3bn; £350m; £2.4bn upsize to £5.4bn; runway to end 2026 or start 2027, autumn 2027 with upsize; fifteen earlier approvals · thameswater.co.uk
- Investing.com, 15 Oct 2026: what the sixteenth requests cover; £350m in November; the upsize as a separate process · investing.com
- Thames Water, 16 Oct 2026: recapitalisation update; no decision by the board or Ofwat on the L&VW proposal; Class B write-off · thameswater.co.uk
- Reuters via Euronext, 27 Oct 2026: S&P cuts Thames Water to CCC-, outlook negative; reasons; default risk from extensions · live.euronext.com
- The Guardian via AOL, 29 Oct 2026: Burnham weighing takeover, state control or nationalisation; fines-for-stake idea; 16 million customers; 9.75% interest on the £3bn loan · aol.co.uk
- LBC, 27 Oct 2026: pollution incidents 55 a month vs 38; Thames Water’s response; £100m fines; Water Bill · lbc.co.uk
- AJ Bell, 18 Sep 2026: Efra committee urges special administration; creditors hold about £17bn; debt more than £20bn · ajbell.co.uk
- AJ Bell, 15 Jul 2026: profit before tax £226.4m vs loss of £1.65bn; total debt £19.77bn vs £17.73bn; CEO quote · ajbell.co.uk
- Thames Water annual results, 15 Jul 2025: loss before tax of £1,647m · thameswater.co.uk
- Thames Water, 17 Mar 2025: restructuring plan and £3bn loan upheld by the Court of Appeal · thameswater.co.uk
- Court of Appeal judgment, 15 Apr 2025: special administration explained · caselaw.nationalarchives.gov.uk
- ITV News, 28 Mar 2024: £500m of equity withdrawn from the £750m pledge · itv.com
- Water Magazine, 21 Oct 2026: £10bn of new capital; plan needs Ofwat and a court · watermagazine.co.uk
- Water Magazine, 24 Aug 2026: no dividends for ten years · watermagazine.co.uk
The verdict, the three moves and the law are Max Noble’s analysis. Nothing has been filed: special administration is a possibility, not an event. Not investment advice.
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Keep Owners Willing to Write the Next Cheque
The same mistake, in your own world. Free, from the book.
- In your company
- The sign: the debt is carried by hope. The check: name who would put more money into your company if it needed it tomorrow. The move: if nobody comes to mind, bring the debt down while the owners are still at the table.
- In your investments
- The sign: a promise of new money that is withdrawn, which is news. The check: read whether the owners have kept their promises to add money. The move: count how often the company has asked lenders for emergency funding.
- In your career
- The sign: a safe-looking employer can still run out of owners. The check: watch whether the people at the top are putting money in or taking it out. The move: trust that more than the slogans.