The Morning Warning List · 22 October 2026
Thames Water
In March 2024 the owners of Thames Water said the first £500 million they had planned to put in would not come. The water still had to flow. So who has been paying to keep it flowing?
The water behind London’s taps.
Thames Water supplies water and takes away sewage for almost 16 million customers in London and the Thames Valley. It runs more than 32,000 kilometres of water mains, and about 8,000 people work there. It was formed after water was privatised in 1989.
New money in. Debt down. A decade to fix it.
Owners, managers and now creditors have all promised to put Thames right. The promises have changed hands more than once.
- Shareholders agreed in July 2023 to put in £750 million of new moneyShareholders, July 2023First £500m withdrawn
- Open
It will take at least a decade to turn Thames around
Chris Weston, CEO, annual results, July 2025 - At least £10 billion of new private money, and no dividends for ten yearsLondon & Valley Water, the creditor group, 2026Needs Ofwat and a court
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- How its debt kept rising, in a chart
- Why the 29 October vote matters
- Three moves to keep the taps and the books running
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Free. No noise. One reply is enough to leave the list. Not investment advice.
More money in. More debt too.
Thames Water does not lack customers. Nobody in London can choose another tap.
Its debt was about £10 billion when Macquarie sold out in 2017, and about £15 billion by October 2024, PA reported.
In the year to March 2025 it lost £1,647 million before tax. Most of that was a £1,271 million write-down on a loan inside its own group.
In the year to March 2026 its revenue rose 39%, to £3,616 million. Its net debt still rose, to £18.5 billion.
Its cash and ready credit fell from £1,038 million in March 2026 to £588 million by the end of June.
Net debt at the end of March, £ million
From owners to lenders
Every few months it needs a creditor’s yes.
In March 2025 the Court of Appeal upheld a plan that let Thames borrow up to £3 billion in emergency loans.
By mid-October 2026 it had drawn £2.65 billion of that, Reuters reports. It has asked to raise the loan by £2.4 billion, to £5.4 billion, to keep going into autumn 2027.
Creditors vote by 29 October on releasing the next £350 million. It is the 16th time Thames has asked them for consent, and the first fifteen were approved. By now the creditors know the way to the meeting room.
When the owners stop paying in, the lenders start deciding.
The creditors, who hold about £17 billion of the roughly £20 billion of debt, propose to take the company over. Their plan needs Ofwat’s support and a court’s approval.
Nothing has been filed. If the rescue failed, the law lets the government or Ofwat ask a court for special administration. In August, Reuters, citing The Times, reported that the government had shelved plans for that and was still assessing its options.
Three moves to keep the taps and the books running.
Win the 29 October vote.
Release the next £350 million, so the bills keep being paid while the bigger deal is built.
Swap debt for owners.
Turning debt into shares means less interest to pay. Some creditors have already agreed to write off about £1 billion for a small share of the company.
Agree the plan with the regulator first.
Settle the investment and the bills with Ofwat before asking anyone to lend again.
Keep Owners Willing to Write the Next Cheque
In March 2024 the owners of Thames Water were due to put in £500 million. Then they said the money would not come. Thames’s debt had grown from about £10 billion in 2017 to about £15 billion by 2024. From then on, the money had to come from lenders. In March 2025 a court upheld a plan for emergency loans of up to £3 billion. By October 2026 Thames had drawn £2.65 billion. It asked for £2.4 billion more. Its lenders had now been asked to say yes sixteen times. The meeting room has become a second home. Debt works only while someone stands behind it. When the owners step back, the lenders step in.
— Max Noble
Thames Water’s owners held back their money in 2024. Since then, its lenders have kept the water flowing.
From the book in preparationThe 42 Laws of BANKRUPT · the 2027 edition, out 31 OctoberRead every law so far →
Every number traceable.
- Reuters via Devdiscourse, 15 Oct 2026: £2.4bn request, £2.65bn drawn, 29 Oct vote, 16th consent, about £20bn debt · devdiscourse.com
- Reuters via Euronext, 20 Oct 2026: chair designate, creditors hold about £17bn · live.euronext.com
- Thames Water annual results, 15 Jul 2026: revenue, net debt, liquidity · thameswater.co.uk
- Thames Water annual results, 15 Jul 2025: loss before tax, loan write-down, CEO quote · thameswater.co.uk
- Thames Water, 17 Mar 2025: restructuring plan upheld · thameswater.co.uk
- Court of Appeal judgment, 15 Apr 2025: mains, sewers, staff, special administration · caselaw.nationalarchives.gov.uk
- ITV News, 28 Mar 2024: £500m of equity withdrawn, customers · itv.com
- PA via Jersey Evening Post, 25 Oct 2024: debt in 2017 and 2024, privatisation · jerseyeveningpost.com
- Water Magazine, 19 Oct 2026: Class B creditors’ agreement · watermagazine.co.uk
- Water Magazine, 21 Oct 2026: £10bn of new capital, plan needs Ofwat and court · watermagazine.co.uk
- Water Magazine, 24 Aug 2026: no dividends for ten years · watermagazine.co.uk
- Reuters/The Times via ARY News, 25 Aug 2026: administration plans shelved · arynews.tv
The three moves and the law are Max Noble’s analysis. Thames Water has not been scored. Not investment advice.