The Morning Warning List · 25 October 2026
JetBlue
On Friday evening, 23 October 2026, Bloomberg reported that a group of JetBlue’s lenders had hired its own bankers and lawyers. Customers were still booking. So why are the lenders getting ready?
Cheap seats, with a friendly touch.
JetBlue is a New York airline that sells low fares with extras, such as seatback television and more legroom. It flew its first passengers on 11 February 2000, to Buffalo and Fort Lauderdale. Today it has about 23,000 staff and its shares trade on Nasdaq.
Grow by deals. Then fix the costs.
For four years JetBlue’s answer to being smaller than the big airlines was a deal. When the deals ended, it promised to fix itself alone.
- Buy Spirit Airlines for $3.8 billion and build a bigger low-fare airlineAgreed 28 Jul 2022Blocked by a judge, 16 Jan 2024
- A plan called JetForward, worth $290 million of extra operating profit in its first full yearJetBlue, for 2025$305 million in 2025
- Minus 2% to minus 5% by July
Breakeven or better
Margin guidance for 2026, 27 Jan 2026
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- Six years of losses, in one chart
- What a jump in the fuel bill did to a plan that works
- Three moves before the lenders write their own
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Free. No noise. One reply is enough to leave the list. Not investment advice.
A plan that works. A year that doesn’t.
JetBlue earned $569 million in 2019. It has not made a yearly profit since.
Then it tried to grow by joining others. A court ordered its alliance with American unwound on 19 May 2023. A judge blocked its purchase of Spirit on 16 January 2024.
When the Spirit deal was called off on 4 March 2024, JetBlue paid a $69 million break fee and $400 million to Spirit’s shareholders.
Its own plan did better. JetForward delivered $305 million of extra operating profit in 2025, above the $290 million expected. By June 2026 the total had reached about $470 million.
But fuel moved faster. In the second quarter of 2026 JetBlue paid an average of $4.23 a gallon, 76% more than a year earlier. It lost $247 million in those three months.
Profit or loss for the year, $ million
Average fuel price paid, $ per gallon, second quarter
The lenders have stopped waiting.
In August 2024 JetBlue borrowed against TrueBlue, its frequent-flyer programme. Holders of $2 billion of those bonds, due in 2031, and of a $742 million loan are now organising, Bloomberg reports.
They have hired PJT Partners, an investment bank, and Akin Gump, a law firm. The Wall Street Journal reported it first.
The bonds fell 10 cents in a week, to about 45 cents on the dollar, Bloomberg reports. Lenders price debt like that when they worry about getting paid back.
Waiting for a judge is the most expensive way to sit at the gate.
S&P cut JetBlue’s credit rating to CCC+ on 8 June. It expects the airline to spend about $1 billion more cash than it brings in this year.
JetBlue had about $2.2 billion of cash and investments at the end of June, plus a $600 million credit line it had not used. Its debt was about $8.5 billion.
JetBlue says it remains confident in its plan and its progress toward profit. Results for the third quarter come on Tuesday, 27 October.
Nothing has been filed. Nothing is decided.
Debt and cash at 30 June 2026, $ billion
Three moves before the lenders write their own.
Talk to the loyalty lenders first.
Their advisers are hired. A plan offered early is a plan JetBlue can still shape.
Fly only what pays for today’s fuel.
Every flight that loses money at $4 a gallon burns cash this winter. Keep the strong home airports. Trim the rest.
Turn spare assets into cash.
Bloomberg counts about $6 billion of assets that are not yet pledged. Borrowing against them, calmly and early, buys time on JetBlue’s own terms.
Build Growth That Needs No Permission
New York, February 2000. A young airline its founders had wanted to call Taxi flew its first passengers to Buffalo and Fort Lauderdale. Then, to grow, JetBlue chose deals that needed someone else’s yes. On 19 May 2023 a court ordered its partnership with American Airlines ended. On 16 January 2024 a judge blocked its $3.8 billion purchase of Spirit. JetBlue had paid $469 million on a deal that never happened. By October 2026 a group of its lenders had hired their own advisers. Waiting for a judge, it turns out, is the most expensive way to sit at the gate. Build growth that needs no permission. Customers say yes every day.
— Max Noble
JetBlue staked its growth on two deals that needed a court’s yes, and both ended in a no.
From the book in preparationThe 42 Laws of BANKRUPT · the 2027 edition, out 31 OctoberRead every law so far →
Every number traceable.
- Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, Reshmi Basu and Dorothy Ma, 23 Oct 2026: creditor group with PJT Partners and Akin Gump; $2bn bonds due 2031 and $742m loan; prices about 45 cents; S&P CCC+ and $1bn cash shortfall; $6bn unencumbered assets; WSJ first · yahoo.com
- Airways, 28 Jul 2026: second-quarter 2026 results, revenue, $247m net loss, fuel at $4.23 a gallon (up 76.3%), JetForward about $470m, cash $2.2bn, $600m credit line, debt $8.478bn · airwaysmag.com
- JetBlue fourth-quarter 2025 results, 27 Jan 2026: 2025 net loss of $602m; JetForward $305m against $290m expected; 2026 margin “breakeven or better” · businesswire.com
- Macrotrends: JetBlue net income by year, 2019–2024 · macrotrends.net
- View from the Wing, Gary Leff, 24 Oct 2026: the airline’s statement that it is confident in its strategy (via Reuters) · viewfromthewing.com
- Wikipedia: JetBlue, the name Taxi, first flights on 11 Feb 2000, seatback TV in April 2000, the American alliance ruling (19 May 2023), the Spirit deal ($3.8bn), the block (16 Jan 2024), the $69m fee and $400m payment, about 23,000 staff · wikipedia.org
The BANKRUPT Meter is my opinion of how close a company is to bankruptcy, based on the sources listed. The three moves and the law are Max Noble’s analysis. JetBlue is listed on Nasdaq. Not investment advice.