A free case from BANKRUPT. Five minutes, three lessons.
En gratis case fra BANKRUPT. Fem minutter, tre råd.
Europe's greatest battery hope.
Europas største batterihåb.
Northvolt was going to build Europe's own batteries, with Swedish hydropower. It had orders worth $55 billion. In November 2024, it had cash for about a week. What business did it think it was in?
Northvolt skulle bygge Europas egne batterier, med svensk vandkraft. Selskabet havde ordrer for 55 milliarder dollar. I november 2024 havde det penge til omkring en uge. Hvilken forretning troede det, det var i?
A factory is not a symbol. A factory is a machine, and the machine has to work.
On 21 November 2024, Northvolt filed for Chapter 11 protection in a court in Houston, Texas. It had about $30 million in the bank. That was enough to run the business for about a week. Its debt was $5.8 billion. The next day, the co-founder and chief executive, Peter Carlsson, stepped down.
Eight years earlier, two former Tesla executives had set out to build the world's greenest battery in northern Sweden. Volkswagen, BMW and Goldman Sachs came in. Governments and banks followed. More than $10 billion was raised.
The easy answer is bad luck, or competition from Asia. The more useful answer is simpler. Northvolt sold a mission. Its customers were buying a delivery.
En fabrik er ikke et symbol. En fabrik er en maskine, og maskinen skal virke.
Den 21. november 2024 søgte Northvolt konkursbeskyttelse efter Chapter 11 ved en domstol i Houston, Texas. Der stod omkring 30 millioner dollar i kassen. Det rakte til omkring en uges drift. Gælden var 5,8 milliarder dollar. Dagen efter trådte medstifter og topchef Peter Carlsson tilbage.
Otte år tidligere havde to tidligere Tesla-chefer sat sig for at bygge verdens grønneste batteri i Nordsverige. Volkswagen, BMW og Goldman Sachs gik ind. Regeringer og banker fulgte efter. Der blev rejst over 10 milliarder dollar.
Det lette svar er uheld eller konkurrence fra Asien. Det mere nyttige svar er enklere. Northvolt solgte en mission. Kunderne købte en leverance.
Sold before it was built.
Solgt, før det var bygget.
- 2016Peter Carlsson and Paolo Cerruti, both formerly at Tesla, found Northvolt. The promise: the world's greenest battery, made in Europe with renewable power.
- 2021Volkswagen orders cells worth more than $14 billion over ten years. The first cell comes off the line in Skellefteå late in the year.
- 2022First deliveries to customers. The order book reaches $55 billion.
- 2023The heaviest investment year in its history. The loss triples to about $1.2 billion.
- Jan 2024A $5 billion loan, described as Europe's largest green loan.
- Jun 2024BMW withdraws a €2 billion order. German press reports Northvolt was two years behind and rejecting too many cells. Samsung SDI takes the work.
- Sep 2024Northvolt announces 1,600 job cuts in Sweden, 1,000 of them in Skellefteå.
- Nov 2024Chapter 11 in Texas, with cash for about a week. The chief executive steps down the next day.
- Mar 2025Northvolt files for bankruptcy in Sweden on 12 March. About 5,000 people work there.
- Feb 2026The American battery company Lyten completes its purchase of Northvolt's Swedish plants.
- 2016Peter Carlsson og Paolo Cerruti, begge tidligere hos Tesla, stifter Northvolt. Løftet: verdens grønneste batteri, lavet i Europa med vedvarende energi.
- 2021Volkswagen bestiller celler for over 14 milliarder dollar over ti år. Den første celle kommer ud af fabrikken i Skellefteå sidst på året.
- 2022Første leverancer til kunder. Ordrebogen når 55 milliarder dollar.
- 2023Det tungeste investeringsår i selskabets historie. Underskuddet tredobles til omkring 1,2 milliarder dollar.
- Jan. 2024Et lån på 5 milliarder dollar, omtalt som Europas største grønne lån.
- Jun. 2024BMW trækker en ordre på 2 milliarder euro. Ifølge tysk presse var Northvolt to år bagud og kasserede for mange celler. Samsung SDI overtager opgaven.
- Sep. 2024Northvolt meddeler 1.600 fyringer i Sverige, heraf 1.000 i Skellefteå.
- Nov. 2024Chapter 11 i Texas, med penge til omkring en uge. Topchefen træder tilbage dagen efter.
- Mar. 2025Northvolt går konkurs i Sverige den 12. marts. Omkring 5.000 mennesker arbejder der.
- Feb. 2026Det amerikanske batteriselskab Lyten gennemfører købet af Northvolts svenske fabrikker.
Three questions. Which business was it in?
Tre spørgsmål. Hvilken forretning var det i?
Derek Abell showed in 1980 that a business is defined by three questions, not by its product. Who are the customers? What need do we meet? How do we meet it? When the three answers do not fit together, the business does not either.
Derek Abell viste i 1980, at en forretning defineres af tre spørgsmål, ikke af sit produkt. Hvem er kunderne? Hvilket behov dækker vi? Hvordan dækker vi det? Når de tre svar ikke passer sammen, gør forretningen det heller ikke.
Who: customer groups
ClearA few very large buyers: Volkswagen, BMW, Volvo Cars, Scania and Fluence. Volkswagen was both its biggest customer and an owner of about a fifth.
Few customers means each one holds great power over you.
What: customer needs
MismatchNorthvolt's answer was "the world's greenest battery". A car maker's need is millions of identical cells, on time, at the agreed price.
Green is a bonus on a product that works. It cannot replace it.
How: technology
OverstretchedOne gigafactory still learning to make cells, plus cathode material, recycling, energy storage in Poland, and new plants in Germany and Canada. Up to six at once, Industry Insider reported.
When everything is a key activity, nothing is.
Hvem: kundegrupper
KlarFå, meget store købere: Volkswagen, BMW, Volvo Cars, Scania og Fluence. Volkswagen var både den største kunde og ejer af omkring en femtedel.
Få kunder betyder, at hver af dem har stor magt over dig.
Hvad: kundebehov
MismatchNorthvolts svar var »verdens grønneste batteri«. En bilfabriks behov er millioner af ens celler, til tiden, til den aftalte pris.
Grøn er en bonus oven på et produkt, der virker. Den kan ikke erstatte det.
Hvordan: teknologi
OverstraktÉn gigafabrik, der stadig lærte at lave celler, plus katodemateriale, genbrug, energilagre i Polen og nye fabrikker i Tyskland og Canada. Op til seks på én gang, ifølge Industry Insider.
Når alt er en nøgleaktivitet, er ingenting det.
Northvolt sold a mission. Its customers were buying a delivery.Max Noble
Northvolt solgte en mission. Kunderne købte en leverance.Max Noble
Who had the power, and who had the interest?
Hvem havde magten, og hvem havde interessen?
The power-interest matrix sorts stakeholders by how much they care and how much they can decide. Northvolt had more applause than almost any company in Europe. The decisive votes sat in one corner.
Interessentmatricen sorterer interessenterne efter, hvor meget de bekymrer sig, og hvor meget de kan bestemme. Northvolt fik flere klapsalver end næsten nogen anden virksomhed i Europa. De afgørende stemmer sad i ét hjørne.
Manage closely
Volkswagen (owner and customer), Goldman Sachs (owner of about a fifth), BMW and the lenders. They paid the bills, and they could stop paying.
Keep satisfied
Governments and the EU. The EU approved €900 million of German aid for the plant in Heide. Canada and Québec promised support for a plant there.
Keep informed
Thousands of employees, the town of Skellefteå, suppliers and installers. They had the most to lose, and the least say.
Monitor
The wider public. It applauded the story. Applause does not pay for a production line.
Håndtér tæt
Volkswagen (ejer og kunde), Goldman Sachs (ejer af omkring en femtedel), BMW og långiverne. De betalte regningerne, og de kunne holde op.
Hold tilfreds
Regeringer og EU. EU godkendte 900 millioner euro i tysk statsstøtte til fabrikken i Heide. Canada og Québec lovede støtte til en fabrik der.
Hold informeret
Tusindvis af medarbejdere, byen Skellefteå, leverandører og montører. De havde mest at tabe og mindst at sige.
Overvåg
Den brede offentlighed. Den klappede af historien. Klapsalver betaler ikke for et produktionsanlæg.
In June 2024, BMW withdrew its order. The next month, German press reported that Volkswagen had set up a task force on the problems in Skellefteå. In the autumn, Volvo moved to take over the joint plant in Gothenburg. In November, Volkswagen's representative left the board. When the top-right corner stepped back, the money stopped.
I juni 2024 trak BMW sin ordre. Måneden efter skrev tysk presse, at Volkswagen havde nedsat en task force om problemerne i Skellefteå. I efteråret gik Volvo i gang med at overtage fællesfabrikken i Göteborg. I november forlod Volkswagens repræsentant bestyrelsen. Da hjørnet øverst til højre trådte tilbage, holdt pengene op med at komme.
Three lessons.
Tre råd.
A mission is not a business model.
Customers pay for what they need, not for the story. Make sure your answer to "what" is the customer's answer.
The one who pays has the power.
Map who can end the business with one decision. Earn their trust in deliveries, not in press releases.
Make the first one work.
Speed is not a strategy. Build the next factory when the first one delivers, steadily, with low waste.
En mission er ikke en forretningsmodel.
Kunder betaler for det, de har brug for, ikke for historien. Sørg for, at jeres svar på »hvad« er kundens svar.
Den, der betaler, har magten.
Kortlæg, hvem der kan lukke forretningen med én beslutning. Gør jer fortjent til deres tillid med leverancer, ikke pressemeddelelser.
Få den første til at virke.
Fart er ikke en strategi. Byg den næste fabrik, når den første leverer stabilt og med lidt spild.
A fair word: nobody knows whether slower growth would have saved Northvolt. It might have lost customers who wanted batteries fast. That is exactly what makes the case worth discussing.
Et fair ord: Ingen ved, om langsommere vækst havde reddet Northvolt. Den kunne have kostet kunder, der ville have batterier hurtigt. Det er netop det, der gør casen værd at diskutere.
Take it to your team or class.
Tag den med til dit team eller din klasse.
- Which of Abell's three questions did Northvolt answer most clearly, and which least?
- Place Volkswagen on the matrix twice: as owner and as customer. Did the two roles pull the same way?
- Who in your own business could end it with one decision?
The test question: what business are you really in, the one you describe, or the one your customers pay for?
- Hvilket af Abells tre spørgsmål besvarede Northvolt tydeligst, og hvilket mindst?
- Placér Volkswagen i matricen to gange: som ejer og som kunde. Trak de to roller i samme retning?
- Hvem i jeres egen virksomhed kunne lukke den med én beslutning?
Testspørgsmålet: Hvilken forretning er I egentlig i, den I beskriver, eller den jeres kunder betaler for?
Before you ask how big your mission is, ask whether the machine works.
Før du spørger, hvor stor jeres mission er, så spørg, om maskinen virker.
Every number traceable.
Alle tal kan spores.
- Bloomberg via BNN, 21.11.2024: Chapter 11, about $30m in cash, $5.84bn of debt · bnnbloomberg.ca
- Bloomberg via BNN, 22.11.2024: the chief executive steps down; more than $10bn raised · bnnbloomberg.ca
- Gulf Times / AFP, 23.11.2024: Volkswagen and Goldman Sachs each own about a fifth · gulf-times.com
- WardsAuto: founders from Tesla; customers BMW, Volvo, VW, Fluence and Scania · wardsauto.com
- The Local, 15.3.2021: Volkswagen order of $14bn over ten years; "the world's greenest battery" · thelocal.se
- Charged EVs: first cell late 2021, first deliveries spring 2022 · chargedevs.com
- Northvolt, Sustainability and Annual Report 2023: order book, investment, capacity · ledarsidorna.se
- CleanTechnica, 8.7.2024: loss tripled to about $1.2bn in 2023 · cleantechnica.com
- Electrive, 20.6.2024: BMW withdraws a €2bn order; two years behind · electrive.com
- Heise / dpa: too many rejected cells; Samsung SDI takes over · heise.de
- Electrive, 11.7.2024: Volkswagen task force; €900m aid for Heide · electrive.com
- Híbridos y Eléctricos, 25.9.2024: 1,600 job cuts, 1,000 in Skellefteå · hibridosyelectricos.com
- Electrek: Volvo takes over the joint plant; Volkswagen's board member steps down; support from Canada and Québec · electrek.co
- Industry Insider: up to six plants at once · industryinsider.eu
- Wikipedia: Northvolt ($5bn green loan, January 2024) · en.wikipedia.org
- The Local, 8.1.2026: about 5,000 employees at the bankruptcy · thelocal.se
- Lyten, 26.2.2026: purchase of Northvolt Sweden completed · lyten.com
The Abell and power-interest assessments, the placement of stakeholders and the three lessons are Max Noble's analysis. Reports from the German press are given as reports.
Abell- og interessentvurderingerne, placeringen af interessenterne og de tre råd er Max Nobles analyse. Oplysninger fra tysk presse er gengivet som sådan.