{ "edition": 7, "date": "2026-10-26", "time": "05:00", "lede": "GiFi’s new boss stood before the Toulouse court on Friday, with a ruling due on 3 November, and a São Paulo court has backed a debt deal for Ri Happy, Brazil’s toy chain.", "denmark_title": "Recent falls and rescues", "denmark_note": "No new Danish company with more than 50 staff or a known brand showed early danger signs since the last edition. These are this autumn’s falls and rescues, so we can learn from them. Early warnings appear here the day we find them.", "denmark": [ { "rank": 1, "company": "Humac", "country": "Denmark", "what": "Apple shops", "score": null, "meaning": "The old company went into reconstruction", "trend": "same", "status": "Rescued. Closed on 13 August, reopened on 16 September under a new owner.", "verdict": "Eight years of losses in a row. Now the man who sold it in 2024 has bought it back.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "Went into reconstruction and closed every shop and the webshop", "date": "13 Aug 2026", "url": "https://www.recordere.dk/2026/08/humac-lukker-alle-butikker-og-webshop-konkurs-eller-rekonstruktion/" }, { "level": "red", "text": "Lost DKK 27 million in 2025, its eighth losing year in a row", "date": "2025 accounts", "url": "https://www.recordere.dk/2026/08/humac-lukker-alle-butikker-og-webshop-konkurs-eller-rekonstruktion/" } ], "watch": "Whether the new owner can make the shops pay.", "story": "/story/humac", "about": "Sells Apple products in Denmark, with advice, set-up and repairs, through its own shops.", "meter": 90 }, { "rank": 2, "company": "Velkommen group", "country": "Denmark", "what": "Electricity suppliers", "score": null, "meaning": "Bankruptcy requested", "trend": "same", "status": "The grid companies asked the court to declare the four companies bankrupt. More than 32,000 customers were moved to new suppliers on 30 June.", "verdict": "Customers waited too long for money they were owed, and the companies lost the right to sell power.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "Late with refunds in most cases checked by the regulator", "date": "30 Jun 2026", "url": "https://www.sn.dk/art6599121/koebenhavn-kommune/indland/energinet-flytter-over-32000-kunder-til-nye-elleverandoerer" }, { "level": "red", "text": "Grid companies Cerius and Radius asked for bankruptcy", "date": "2026", "url": "https://www.tv2kosmopol.dk/koebenhavn/omstridte-elselskaber-begaeres-konkurs-og-politianmeldes-7d13e" } ], "watch": "How much customers get back.", "about": "Sold electricity to Danish homes under several brand names.", "story": "/story/velkommen", "meter": 92 }, { "rank": 3, "company": "Hamiconsult", "country": "Denmark", "what": "Engineering advisers, Herning", "score": null, "meaning": "Bankrupt", "trend": "same", "status": "Declared bankrupt by the court in Herning on 15 September.", "verdict": "The warning was in its own accounts: the last annual report already doubted the company could carry on.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "Declared bankrupt; a sister company was asked into bankruptcy the same day", "date": "15 Sep 2026", "url": "https://www.licitationen.dk/article/view/1246572/konkurs_breder_sig_i_radgiverkoncern" } ], "watch": "What happens to the rest of the group.", "about": "An engineering consultancy in Herning that advised on building and construction projects.", "story": "/story/hamiconsult", "meter": 100 }, { "rank": 4, "company": "CPH Steel", "country": "Denmark", "what": "Steel work for construction firms", "score": null, "meaning": "Bankrupt", "trend": "same", "status": "Reconstruction in July failed. Declared bankrupt on 5 August.", "verdict": "A few building jobs that went wrong emptied the till. More than 1,300 suppliers were left unpaid.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "Rescue attempt failed within weeks", "date": "5 Aug 2026", "url": "https://www.metal-supply.dk/article/view/1239140/rekonstruktion_fejlede_nu_er_stor_smedevirksomhed_konkurs" }, { "level": "red", "text": "More than 1,300 creditors unpaid when reconstruction began", "date": "31 Jul 2026", "url": "https://www.building-supply.dk/article/view/1238320/leverandor_er_okonomisk_nodlidende_og_gar_i_rekonstruktion" } ], "watch": "Whether anyone buys the business.", "about": "Made and fitted steel structures for Danish building projects.", "story": "/story/cph-steel", "meter": 100 }, { "rank": 5, "company": "Nimbus", "country": "Denmark", "what": "The motorcycle brand, revived", "score": null, "meaning": "Bankruptcy requested", "trend": "same", "status": "Asked into bankruptcy in June, according to its own website.", "verdict": "Twelve years of trying to bring back a Danish legend ended before the electric motorcycle reached the road.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "Bankruptcy requested", "date": "12 Jun 2026", "url": "https://ugebrev.dk/flashnews/legendarisk-transportmiddel-var-kendt-fra-post-og-forsvar-ikonisk-dansk-virksomhed-gaar-konkurs/" } ], "watch": "Whether someone buys the name.", "about": "Tried to bring back Nimbus, the classic Danish motorcycle, as an electric motorcycle.", "story": "/story/nimbus", "meter": 92 } ], "world": [ { "rank": 1, "company": "GiFi", "country": "France", "what": "Discount bazaar shops", "score": null, "trend": "same", "status": "GiFi has filed. It asked the Toulouse commercial court for a redressement judiciaire, a court-led rescue, and its boss Patrick Puy appeared before the court on 23 October. The court has not yet ruled; a decision is expected on 3 November.", "verdict": "A computer change in 2023 disrupted its stock for months, and its banks reportedly would not lend another €50 million. Its shops stay open while the court decides.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "Patrick Puy appeared before the Toulouse court with staff representatives; a decision is expected on 3 November", "date": "25 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.varactu.fr/gifi-pourrait-il-fermer-des-magasins-dans-le-var-une-date-importante-vient-detre-annoncee/" }, { "level": "red", "text": "Asked the Toulouse commercial court for a court-led rescue; decision due on 3 November", "date": "23 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.boursorama.com/actualite-economique/actualites/gifi-a-demande-son-placement-en-redressement-judiciaire-decision-le-3-novembre-5c5dcb2742a3909403334c41d0236dfd" }, { "level": "red", "text": "Banks refused another €50m; about three months of cash left, the Journal de l’Économie reports", "date": "20 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.journaldeleconomie.fr/?p=49883" }, { "level": "watch", "text": "Staff representatives raised a formal alarm over the company’s finances", "date": "6 Oct 2026", "url": "https://lexpress-franchise.com/actualites/gifi-serait-en-cessation-de-paiements/" } ], "watch": "The Toulouse court’s decision on 3 November.", "story": "/story/gifi", "about": "Sells low-priced decorations, craft supplies and seasonal goods in more than 500 shops across France.", "meter": 95 }, { "rank": 2, "company": "Galeria", "country": "Germany", "what": "Department stores", "score": null, "trend": "same", "status": "Galeria filed an insolvency application on 2 October, its fourth in six years. The Düsseldorf court ordered provisional proceedings on 5 October and named Frank Kebekus provisional administrator. Full proceedings have not been opened.", "verdict": "It has signed a loan to keep goods flowing during the procedure, and an adviser is looking for a buyer. Its administrator expects that not all 83 stores can continue.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "Fourth insolvency application in six years; provisional proceedings since 5 October. 83 stores, about 12,000 staff", "date": "8 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.cash-online.de/a/galeria-insolvenz-2026-727229/" }, { "level": "watch", "text": "Signed a loan for the insolvency period with Gordon Brothers; goods are flowing and vouchers can be used again", "date": "20 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.infranken.de/deutschland/galeria-bekommt-wichtigen-kredit-deutlich-mehr-spielraum-art-6404859,PRINT" }, { "level": "red", "text": "Provisional administrator Frank Kebekus said not all 83 stores will probably continue", "date": "16 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.zdfheute.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/galeria-kaufhof-insolvenz-verwaltung-hoffnung-konzept-100.html" } ], "watch": "Whether a buyer appears; candidates are due in early January.", "about": "A German department-store chain with 83 stores.", "meter": 95, "story": "/story/galeria" }, { "company": "RAL Yatırım Holding", "country": "Turkey", "what": "Investment holding company", "score": null, "trend": "new", "status": "RAL Yatırım Holding applied for konkordato, a court-led debt agreement, on 16 October. The Ankara 2nd Commercial Court granted a three-month temporary moratorium.", "verdict": "A listed holding company now has three months of court protection to reach terms with the people it owes. Its shares are down about 95% from this year’s peak.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "Applied for konkordato; three-month temporary moratorium granted by the Ankara 2nd Commercial Court", "date": "20 Oct 2026", "url": "https://boldmedya.com/2026/10/20/ral-yatirim-holding-konkordato/" }, { "level": "watch", "text": "Shares down about 95% from the 2026 peak", "date": "20 Oct 2026", "url": "https://boldmedya.com/2026/10/20/ral-yatirim-holding-konkordato/" } ], "watch": "Whether creditors back a plan within the three-month moratorium.", "about": "A holding company listed in Istanbul that owns stakes in other businesses.", "meter": 95, "rank": 3 }, { "rank": 4, "company": "Homeplus", "country": "South Korea", "what": "Hypermarkets", "score": null, "trend": "same", "status": "Homeplus is in court-led rehabilitation, and the court approved its plan on 2 September. Its 67 stores, head office and online arm are for sale, with letters of intent due by the end of October.", "verdict": "Sales fell to about 30% of target in early October, and suppliers now ask for cash up front, its chief executive told parliament. No buyer has come forward yet.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "In court-led rehabilitation; letters of intent for 67 stores, the head office and the online arm due by end-October", "date": "15 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.ajunews.com/view/20261015132810082" }, { "level": "red", "text": "Sales fell to about 30% of target in early October", "date": "18 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.fnnews.com/news/202610181816555764" }, { "level": "red", "text": "Can only trade on advance payment and cash, its chief executive told a parliamentary audit", "date": "12 Oct 2026", "url": "https://biz.sbs.co.kr/amp/article/20000339475" } ], "watch": "How many offers arrive by the end of October.", "about": "A South Korean chain of large supermarkets.", "meter": 95, "story": "/story/homeplus" }, { "company": "Ri Happy group", "country": "Brazil", "what": "Toy shops", "score": null, "trend": "new", "story": "/story/ri-happy", "status": "Ri Happy has filed. On 23 October a São Paulo court authorised its recuperação extrajudicial, a court-backed deal with its creditors, covering about R$827m of debt. The plan has not been approved yet.", "verdict": "Brazil’s biggest toy chain has 180 days of protection from lawsuits and 90 days to win a majority of its creditors. Its shops stay open for Christmas.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "São Paulo court authorised the recuperação extrajudicial of six group companies; 180-day stay", "date": "23 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.tjsp.jus.br/Noticias/Noticia?codigoNoticia=115833&pagina=1" }, { "level": "red", "text": "About R$827m of unsecured debt, owed mainly to banks, suppliers and shopping-mall owners", "date": "Oct 2026", "url": "https://forbes.com.br/geral/2026/10/ri-happy-recuperacao-extrajudicial-divida-827-milhoes/" } ], "watch": "Whether it wins a majority of each company’s creditors within 90 days.", "about": "Sells toys in about 290 shops across Brazil, under the Ri Happy and PBKids names.", "meter": 95, "rank": 5 }, { "rank": 6, "company": "Casas Bahia", "country": "Brazil", "what": "Home appliance and furniture shops", "score": null, "trend": "same", "status": "A São Paulo court let its court-led rescue go ahead on 21 October. It wants to renegotiate about R$17bn of debt.", "verdict": "Brazil's best-known home store chain asked for a court-led rescue in August. The court has now let it begin, which is not yet approval of a plan.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "Court let its recuperação judicial (court-led rescue) proceed", "date": "21 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-justica/justica-autoriza-recuperacao-judicial-da-casas-bahia/" }, { "level": "red", "text": "Filed to renegotiate about R$17.3bn of debt", "date": "16 Aug 2026", "url": "https://www.migalhas.com.br/quentes/467016/justica-autoriza-processamento-da-recuperacao-judicial-das-casas-bahia" } ], "watch": "Whether creditors back its rescue plan.", "story": "/story/casas-bahia", "about": "Sells appliances, furniture and electronics across Brazil, in shops and online.", "meter": 95 }, { "rank": 7, "company": "Mercer International", "country": "Canada · Germany", "what": "Pulp and wood products", "score": null, "trend": "same", "status": "Mercer International has not filed. It did not pay a $25.8m interest payment due on 1 October; its grace period ends about 31 October, its own filing says. Talks with lenders continue.", "verdict": "Missing an interest payment is one of the clearest warning signs there is, and Bloomberg now reports it is weighing Chapter 11.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "Reportedly weighing Chapter 11, Bloomberg reports", "date": "21 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.lesprom.com/en/news/Mercer_International_may_file_for_Chapter_11_bankruptcy_124812/" }, { "level": "red", "text": "Did not pay $25.8m of interest due on its bonds", "date": "1 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/MERC/8-k-mercer-international-inc-reports-material-event-f5723d9f438d.html" } ], "watch": "Whether a deal with lenders arrives before the grace period ends, about 31 October.", "about": "Makes wood pulp, timber and other wood products in Germany and Canada.", "story": "/story/mercer-international", "meter": 88 }, { "company": "Optimum Communications", "country": "United States", "what": "Cable and broadband", "score": null, "trend": "new", "status": "Optimum has not filed. It is weighing Chapter 11 to carry out a deal that would hand control to its lenders, Bloomberg reported on 22 October.", "verdict": "Its debts add up to more than $26bn, Bloomberg reports. Nothing is decided yet, and lenders and owners could still settle without a court.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "Reportedly weighing Chapter 11 to carry out a debt deal; debts of more than $26bn, Bloomberg reports", "date": "22 Oct 2026", "url": "https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/drahis-optimum-mulls-possible-bankruptcy-to-execute-debt-revamp" }, { "level": "red", "text": "Close to handing control to lenders including Apollo, Oaktree and JPMorgan, the Wall Street Journal reports", "date": "21 Oct 2026", "url": "https://broadbandbreakfast.com/debt-plagued-isp-optimum-close-to-handing-the-keys-to-lenders-resolving-litigation/" } ], "watch": "Whether a Chapter 11 petition or a signed lender deal comes first.", "about": "Sells cable TV, broadband and phone services to homes in the United States.", "meter": 86, "rank": 8 }, { "rank": 9, "company": "Thames Water", "country": "United Kingdom", "what": "Water and sewage", "score": null, "trend": "same", "status": "Nothing filed. A £2.4bn creditor loan would let it keep going into autumn 2027. Creditors vote on 29 October.", "verdict": "Almost 16 million customers depend on it, and it carries about £20bn of debt, Reuters reports. In my view, its creditors now hold the key to its next year.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "Asked to raise its emergency loan by £2.4bn, to £5.4bn, to keep going into autumn 2027, Reuters reports", "date": "15 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/3993144-thames-water-seeks-24-billion-more-emergency-funding" }, { "level": "watch", "text": "A new split was reportedly offered to win Pimco, and the Class B creditor group reportedly agreed to back the Class A plan", "date": "20 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.briefs.co/news/thames-water-dangles-sweeter-terms-to-win-pimco-s-nod-on-2-4/" }, { "level": "red", "text": "Has drawn £2.65bn of its £3bn emergency loan and could run short of cash by early 2027, according to Reuters", "date": "15 Oct 2026", "url": "https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/3993144-thames-water-seeks-24-billion-more-emergency-funding" }, { "level": "watch", "text": "Net debt rose to £18.5bn in the year to March 2026, from £16.8bn", "date": "15 Jul 2026", "url": "https://www.thameswater.co.uk/news/2026/jul/thames-water-annual-results-2025-26" } ], "watch": "The creditor vote on 29 October.", "story": "/story/thames-water", "about": "Supplies water and takes away sewage for almost 16 million customers in London and the Thames Valley.", "meter": 75 }, { "rank": 10, "company": "JetBlue", "country": "United States", "what": "Low-fare airline", "score": 33, "meaning": "Business survival uncertain", "trend": "same", "status": "Nothing filed. Its creditors reportedly hired PJT Partners and Akin Gump, Bloomberg reported on 23 October. Third-quarter results come on Tuesday, 27 October.", "verdict": "Its own savings plan is beating its targets, but fuel rose faster, and it has lost money every year since 2019. In my view, the lenders who hold its frequent-flyer programme as security have started planning for themselves.", "signals": [ { "level": "red", "text": "A group of lenders, holding $2bn of bonds and a $742m loan, has hired PJT Partners and Akin Gump, Bloomberg reports", "date": "23 Oct 2026", "url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/jetblue-lenders-organize-stock-debt-231841700.html" }, { "level": "watch", "text": "The bonds backed by its frequent-flyer programme fell to about 45 cents on the dollar, Bloomberg reports", "date": "23 Oct 2026", "url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/jetblue-lenders-organize-stock-debt-231841700.html" }, { "level": "red", "text": "S&P cut its credit rating to CCC+ and expects about $1bn more cash out than in this year", "date": "8 Jun 2026", "url": "https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/jetblue-lenders-organize-stock-debt-231841700.html" }, { "level": "watch", "text": "Lost $247m in the second quarter as its fuel price rose 76% in a year", "date": "28 Jul 2026", "url": "https://airwaysmag.com/new-post/jetblue-q2-2026-revenue-fuel-net-loss" } ], "watch": "Tuesday’s results, and how much cash was left at the end of September.", "story": "/story/jetblue", "about": "A New York airline that sells low fares with extras, such as seatback television and more legroom.", "meter": 55 } ] }